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US bond bears are right, but for all the wrong reasons

My piece for Business Insider on why rising US real interest rates are a good news story, have little to do with the Fed, and help explain the Australian yield curve’s record inversion to the US.

posted on 12 October 2018 by skirchner in Financial Markets

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Money too tight to mention: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s financial stability mandate and low inflation

I have a new publication in the journal Economic Analysis and Policy on the evolution of the RBA’s financial stability mandate and its relationship to the inflation target. Copyright restrictions prevent posting full text online, but DM if interested.

posted on 12 October 2018 by skirchner in Monetary Policy

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US foreign investment a casualty of Donald Trump’s trade war

I have an op-ed in the AFR on how a 40% decline in FDI in the US undermines one of the motivations for Donald Trump’s rising tariff wall

posted on 01 October 2018 by skirchner in Foreign Investment

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The ‘Lehman Moment’ that Wasn’t: Marking the Wrong Anniversary

My reflection on the 10th anniversary of the failure of Lehman argues that we are focused on the wrong anniversary. The failure of the Congressionally-mandated GSEs one week before should be the exemplar of the crisis.

posted on 12 September 2018 by skirchner in Financial Markets

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Debate Papers: Will the global trading system survive President Trump’s tariffs

In the latest installment of the United States Studies Centre’s Debate Papers series, Alan Oxley takes the affirmative and I take the negative on whether the global trading system will survive President Trump’s tariffs.

posted on 04 September 2018 by skirchner in Free Trade & Protectionism

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State of confusion: How policy uncertainty harms international trade and investment

I have a new report out with the United State Studies Centre, State of confusion: How policy uncertainty harms international trade and investment.

posted on 21 August 2018 by skirchner in Foreign Investment, Free Trade & Protectionism, Rule of Law

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Deal-breakers? Regulating foreign direct investment for national security in Australia and the United States

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre, Deal-breakers? Regulating foreign direct investment for national security in Australia and the United States.

David Uren’s write-up in The Australian here.

There is an op-ed version in the Sydney Morning Herald.

posted on 26 July 2018 by skirchner in Foreign Investment

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World trade is squarely in the firing line of the Trump revolution

I get a mention in this article by David Uren on the end game for the Trump Administration’s trade war with the rest of the world.

posted on 19 July 2018 by skirchner in Free Trade & Protectionism

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Donald Trump and US tariffs: A 1930s-style trade war will be hard to avert

I have a piece at ABC News Online arguing we should not underestimate the seriousness of the trade war unfolding between the US and the rest of the world.

posted on 11 July 2018 by skirchner in Free Trade & Protectionism

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Trump’s tariff war doesn’t play to America’s great strengths

I have an op-ed in today’s AFR on America’s move away from its traditional open door policy towards foreign investment. Text below the fold.

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posted on 05 July 2018 by skirchner in Foreign Investment, Free Trade & Protectionism

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Trump Administration Divided on Trade Policy

I have an op-ed in the AFR noting the contradictions in US international economic policy. Full text below the fold (may differ slightly from edited AFR version).

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posted on 23 May 2018 by skirchner in Free Trade & Protectionism

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Don’t Sacrifice the Inflation Target on the Altar of Financial Stability

I have an op-ed at The Conversation on what happens when the RBA sacrifices its inflation target on the altar of financial stability.

posted on 16 May 2018 by skirchner in Monetary Policy

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Trump pursuing the wrong strategy against China

I have an op-ed in the AFR arguing President Trump is pursuing the wrong trade policy strategy against China. Full text below the fold.

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posted on 09 April 2018 by skirchner in Free Trade & Protectionism

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Making America 1930 Again

I have an op-ed in the AFR on Trump’s latest tariff measures. Full text below the fold.

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posted on 05 March 2018 by skirchner in Economics, Free Trade & Protectionism

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Donald Trump has a chance to shape US monetary policy for years

I have an op-ed in today’s AFR on how Obama’s neglect gives Trump the chance to own the leadership of the Federal Reserve Board. Full text below the fold (may differ slightly from published version).

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posted on 14 February 2018 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Monetary Policy

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