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Countering China’s trade coercion should be alliance agenda

I have an op-ed in the AFR arguing that China’s economic statecraft, including its attempted coercion of Australia, has mostly been unsuccessful in promoting its geopolitical objectives and may prompt a collective allied response.

posted on 21 September 2021 by skirchner in Economics, Foreign Affairs & Defence, Free Trade & Protectionism

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US investors cool on Australia

I have an op-ed in The Mandarin summarising my latest report on the Australia-US bilateral investment relationship. Text below the fold.

There is an even longer version in Australian Outlook.

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posted on 06 July 2021 by skirchner in Foreign Investment

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Australia-US bilateral investment in 2020: Taxing times

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre, Australia-US bilateral investment in 2020: Taxing times. The report highlight Australia’s underperformance in attracting US investment since the passage of President Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017. While President Biden’s proposed corporate tax changes will improve Australia’s attractiveness on a relative basis, they also weigh on US corporate investment globally, with ambiguous implications for future US investment in Australia.

US direct investment in Australia is not completely fungible with other forms of foreign capital inflow. Many of the benefits of FDI, like knowledge and intellectual property transfers, access to managerial talent and global supply-chains is firm- and country-specific. The US remains the world’s most innovative economy and US FDI abroad is a major channel through which US productivity gains spillover to the rest of the world, including Australia. Portfolio investment and investment from other countries is not a perfect substitute for US direct investment.

posted on 05 July 2021 by skirchner in Foreign Investment

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G7 tax deal is a threat to reformers

I have an op-ed in the AFR arguing that the G7’s proposed cartelisation of the international tax system threatens reform-oriented small open economies, but Australia could perversely benefit given its high tax burden on capital. Ironically, the proposed 15% minimum corporate tax could backfire and become a floor target for international tax competition. Full text below the fold.

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posted on 08 June 2021 by skirchner in Economics

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Higher corporate taxes make paying for Biden’s spending harder

I have an op-ed in the AFR noting that the Biden Administration’s proposed higher corporate tax rate will penalise US companies relative to foreign competitors and reduce investment and incentives to produce in the US relative to the rest of the world.

posted on 04 May 2021 by skirchner in Fiscal Policy

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National security looms large for foreign investment

I have an op-ed in The Mandarin arguing that the government needs to articulate clearly and transparently the reasons for rejecting foreign acquisitions to minimise foreign investment uncertainty and its economic effects.

posted on 20 April 2021 by skirchner in Foreign Investment

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A Foreign Investment Uncertainty Index for Australia and the United States

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre, A Foreign Investment Uncertainty Index for Australia and the United States. The index helps quantify the uncertainty generated by our regulation of FDI at the border and its economic implications.

John Kehoe writes up the story in today’s AFR. Michael Heath also has a story in Bloomberg.

posted on 16 April 2021 by skirchner in Foreign Investment

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Reforming Australian Monetary Policy: My New Working Paper for the Mercatus Center

Last year, Scott Sumner invited me to contribute to the Mercatus Center Working Paper series on the topic of Australian monetary policy and how a nominal income targeting regime might be implemented in a small open economy. You can read the research summary here and the full paper here.

posted on 28 January 2021 by skirchner in Monetary Policy

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Australia must avoid America’s demographic stagnation

I have an op-ed in The Mandarin on why Australia must avoid America’s demographic stagnation. Text below the fold.

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posted on 23 November 2020 by skirchner in Population & Migration

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Avoiding US-style demographic stagnation: The role of immigration and population growth in Australia’s post-pandemic recovery

I have a new report out with USSC Avoiding US-style demographic stagnation: The role of immigration and population growth in Australia’s post-pandemic recovery.

In the report, I compare recent demographic trends in Australia and the US, in particular, the decline in the US population growth rate to the lowest in a century, even before the onset of the pandemic. This is the product of record low fertility and the Trump Administration’s tightening of US immigration policy, which the Biden Administration will not be able to unwind quickly.

In Australia, population growth is set to slow to its lowest rate since 1916-17, mainly as a result of pandemic-related international border closures. Treasury is assuming no attempt is made in future to make-up the loss in net overseas migration, implying a permanent loss of populaiton and productive potential relative to a no-pandemic counterfactual.

In the report, I call for a federal government-funded increase in managed isolation and quarantine capacity to ease the rationining of international arrivals in the short-term. The government should also set aside its budget planning cap on permanent migration numbers with a view to making-up for lost NOM and reducing the permanent hit to Australia’s population.

I also argue that the government’s National Population and Planning Framework risks state government capture of federal immigration policy.

There is write-up of the report by Shane Wright in the SMH/Age.

posted on 16 November 2020 by skirchner in Population & Migration

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How the activist Fed will pile more pressure on the RBA

I have an op-ed in the AFR explaining how the Fed’s new inflation targeting strategy differs from the RBA and how it will put pressure on the RBA to lift its game.

posted on 31 August 2020 by skirchner in Monetary Policy

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My Guest Apperance on the BIP Show

My guest apperance on the BIP Show podcast. We talk the US economy, election, MMT and more.

posted on 24 July 2020 by skirchner in Economics

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Enduring partners: The US-Australia investment relationship

The United States Studies Centre has released a new report, Enduring partners: The US-Australia investment relationship, by David Uren. The report is a follow-up and update to our landmark 2017 report, Indispensable Economic Partners on the bilateral investment relationship.

In the latest report, I take the opportunity to update my model of the determinants of inward FDI published in the Australian Economic Review in 2012. The model still holds up quite well adding data up to Q1 2020 and can be used to benchmark Australia’s inward FDI performance relative to economic fundamentals since the Australia-US FTA came into force in 2005.

posted on 16 July 2020 by skirchner in Foreign Investment

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China’s behaviour warrants increased scrutiny of foreign investment

I have an op-ed in The Mandarin on the government’s new national security test for foreign acquisitions. Full text below the fold.

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posted on 09 July 2020 by skirchner in

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My interview with David Beckworth’s Macro Musings podcast

My interview with David Beckworth’s Macro Musings podcast is now available. We talk inflation vs NGDP targeting, Australia’s recent macroeconomic history and what they put in the water at the BIS.

posted on 30 June 2020 by skirchner in Monetary Policy

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