Steyn versus Caplan on EU Succession

Mark Steyn accepts Bryan Caplan’s EU succession wager:

If any current EU member with a population over 10 million people in 2007 officially withdraws from the EU before January 1, 2020, I will pay you $100. Otherwise, you owe me $100.

Unfortunately, Caplan has closed his book after three people took him up on the bet.  Perhaps Intrade can be persuaded to make a contract out of it?

Incidentally, while Intrade’s US 2008 recession contract is trading at just over 50%, the contracts for the quarterly GDP outcomes are suggesting a better than 50% chance that growth will be positive for every quarter this year, with the exception of Q2.  Intrade’s definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

posted on 28 April 2008 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets

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