US 2009 Depression

For the truly bearish, Intrade launches a US 2009 depression contract. Depression is defined ‘as a cumulative decline in GDP of more than 10.0% over four consecutive quarters… Negative quarters in the preceding year will count towards the total GDP decline for expiration purposes.’

The contract is yet to trade, but the bid-ask is 5.1/15, with most of the volume on the short-side.