RBA Tightening Expected on Tuesday
Financial market economists are unanimous in expecting a 25 bp tightening from the RBA at Tuesday’s Board meeting, according to a Reuters poll taken today. February inter-bank futures are giving a 69% probability to a 25 bp tightening, while iPredict has an implied probability of 87%. Markets seem to be underpricing a tightening relative to the punditocracy, perhaps reflecting the same concerns driving weakness in equity markets.
posted on 29 January 2010 by skirchner
in Economics, Financial Markets, Monetary Policy
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Comments
Looks like the market was (more) right (or less wrong) than the experts once again!
Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on 02/02 at 02:42 PM
Yes, although the Reuters poll did not allow for the expression of uncertainty. Still, most economists would have given a tightening a very high probability if asked.
Posted by skirchner on 02/03 at 03:47 PM