‘Nice Bank You’ve Got There. Shame if Something Were to Happen to It’
Former Treasurer Peter Costello boasts that he thugged the banks better than Treasurer Swan:
Mr Costello claimed during his tenure as treasurer he was able to apply pressure to the bank’s chiefs not to raise rates as a result of the global credit crunch.
“They’ve taken the opportunity of a new treasurer who is not on top of the job to increase their margins and he came out and of behalf of the Labor Party he approved it,” Mr Costello said.
“I made it clear there were no grounds for the banks to increase interest rates,” Mr Costello said.
Treasury are not the only ones glad to see the back of Peter Costello.
posted on 11 January 2008 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Politics
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The Real Ron Paul
Regular readers will be aware that we are none too fond of the Ludwig von Mises Institute or Republican presidential candidate, Ron Paul. TNR has an expose on them both. The story is largely built around Paul’s old newsletters, revealing:
decades worth of obsession with conspiracies, sympathy for the right-wing militia movement, and deeply held bigotry against blacks, Jews, and gays. In short, they suggest that Ron Paul is not the plain-speaking antiwar activist his supporters believe they are backing—but rather a member in good standing of some of the oldest and ugliest traditions in American politics…
To understand Paul’s philosophy, the best place to start is probably the Ludwig von Mises Institute, a libertarian think tank based in Auburn, Alabama. The institute is named for a libertarian Austrian economist, but it was founded by a man named Lew Rockwell, who also served as Paul’s congressional chief of staff from 1978 to 1982. Paul has had a long and prominent association with the institute, teaching at its seminars and serving as a “distinguished counselor.” The institute has also published his books…
The people surrounding the von Mises Institute—including Paul—may describe themselves as libertarians, but they are nothing like the urbane libertarians who staff the Cato Institute or the libertines at Reason magazine. Instead, they represent a strain of right-wing libertarianism that views the Civil War as a catastrophic turning point in American history—the moment when a tyrannical federal government established its supremacy over the states. As one prominent Washington libertarian [not Tom Palmer - ed.] told me, “There are too many libertarians in this country ... who, because they are attracted to the great books of Mises, ... find their way to the Mises Institute and then are told that a defense of the Confederacy is part of libertarian thought.”
Bryan Caplan finds himself being ‘weirded out’ by Ron Paul:
I’m so used to being completely against everything that any publicly visible group is for, I don’t even know how to respond. When a teen holding a Ron Paul sign walks past me on the street, what am I supposed to do? Give him a thumbs up? Cheer? Stop him and start arguing about immigration? When my flight attendant asks me what I want to drink, do I say “I sympathize with your button”? You tell me.
To which someone replies in comments:
Just stop supporting Ron Paul. Solves the problem.
Virginia Postrel wonders why people are surprised:
Thanks to The New Republic, libertarians who weren’t paying attention in the 1990s, don’t read Texas Monthly, and didn’t do their candidate research have now discovered that Ron Paul said—or, more likely, allowed to be said in his name (probably by Lew Rockwell)—nasty things in his newsletters. Much reaction can be found at Hit & Run, as well as Andrew Sullivan’s blog and The Volokh Conspiracy. The disclosures are not news to me, nor is the Paul campaign’s dismissive reaction a surprise. When you give your political heart to a guy who spends so much time worrying about international bankers, you’re not going to get a tolerant cosmopolitan.
posted on 10 January 2008 by skirchner in Politics
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A New Era of RBA Independence or the Bureaucratisation of Monetary Policy?
The RBA Governor and Treasurer have announced a new Joint Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy, which Treasurer Swan has hailed as a ‘new era’ of central bank independence. The Statement maintains the existing inflation target of 2-3% on average over the economic cycle. The main change is that the positions of the Governor and Deputy Governor will have their level of statutory independence raised to be equal to that of the Commissioner of Taxation and the Australian Statistician. Their appointments will be made by the Governor-General in Council, and could be terminated only with the approval of each House of the Parliament in the same session of Parliament.
In relation to appointments of external members to the RBA Board, the Secretary to the Treasury and the RBA Governor will maintain a register of ‘eminent’ candidates of the ‘highest integrity,’ from which the Treasurer will make new appointments to the Reserve Bank Board.
The improvements to the statutory independence of the Governor and Deputy Governor are welcome in that they serve to augment the existing provisions of the RBA Act that have always given the RBA Governor a high degree of independence from the government of the day. Contrary to the myth propagated by former Treasurer Peter Costello, RBA independence did not begin in August 1996 with the first Joint Statement. But these measures are unlikely to afford the Governor and Deputy Governor much additional independence in practice. The best protection for the Governor and Deputy Governor is their own reputation, which would make any politically-motivated dismissal very damaging for the government of the day. International capital markets could also be expected to punish any government that sought to overtly compromise the independence of the Bank.
The changes in relation to the external Board appointments are designed to remedy the situation by which these appointments have been used for political patronage, most recklessly in the case of former Treasurer Peter Costello’s appointment of Robert Gerard. This may protect the appointments process from undue political influence, but creates a new problem in that it will effectively limit Board appointments to those who meet with approval from the official family of RBA and Treasury. This is a backward step, which will work against promoting a diversity of viewpoints in the policymaking process.
Under the former government, bureaucratic capture of the executive was just as big a problem as executive politicisation of the bureaucracy. In the Treasury portfolio for example, Peter Costello was the subject of aggressive bureaucratic capture in relation to a broad-range of policy areas, from international tax harmonisation to the G20, allowing Treasury to promote its own interests. The new appointments process for external Board members risks entrenching the influence of the RBA’s senior officers over the monetary policy decision-making process, at the expense of those who have been critical of past or current policy. Given that the RBA is currently presiding over an inflation rate in breach of its mandate, this seems an odd time to be further entrenching bureaucratic influence over policy.
The involvement of the Treasury in this process is also at odds with international trends in central bank reform, which generally seek to increase the degree of separation between monetary policy and the fiscal authority. The new register will serve to increase the influence of Treasury over policy. The Treasury Secretary should be excluded from a direct role in monetary policy, with either no representation on the RBA Board, or non-voting representation only. The Treasury should play no role in the appointments process for the RBA Board.
Ultimately, politics cannot be completely removed from the appointments process for both the Bank’s senior officers and the external Board members. The RBA is a government creation and must at some level be answerable to the government of the day. The best protection for the integrity of monetary policy is an extremely high level of transparency in monetary policy decision-making. Unfortunately, the new arrangements for the release of the Board minutes will still keep secret the decisions of individual Board members in relation to monetary policy. Coupled with the effective internalisation of the appointments process to those approved by the Treasury-RBA official family, the new arrangements may serve to entrench the de facto monopoly that the RBA’s senior officers enjoy over decision-making and minimise effective external participation in, and scrutiny over, monetary policy.
posted on 06 December 2007 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Politics
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The Opinion Polls Costello Forgot
As Peter Costello steps-up martyrdom operations against John Howard, Greg Sheridan reminds Costello of his culpability in the Coalition’s defeat:
It is very difficult to find an interpretation of the facts over the past few years that does not indicate that Peter Costello was the one who played the wrecking, and the dishonourable, role in the Liberal Party.
At least 30 per cent of the Government’s problems came from Costello and his party supporters repeatedly briefing the press and others against Howard. There are numerous public examples of this, such as the bitter comments Costello made to Howard’s biographers, or the famously leaked dinner with senior Canberra reporters during which Costello detailed how he would destroy Howard.
Similarly, Costello’s party lieutenants for years briefed journalists on leadership challenge timetables and why Howard must go.
All of this had two perverse consequences. First, more than any other factor it crippled Howard as a medium-term leader. It forced him to make the leadership compromise commitment that he would hand over to Costello midway through the next term.
This minimised the government’s freedom to manoeuvre. It diminished Howard and was a drag on the Liberal vote. Two non-political members of my extended family told me they would vote Labor because they didn’t want Costello to become prime minister. Costello, you see, was always unpopular.
If Roy Morgan is to be believed, Costello would have had a devastating impact on the Coalition:
Electors were also asked who they would vote for if Peter Costello or Malcolm Turnbull were Prime Minister: neither Costello nor Turnbull lifted the L-NP vote beyond the result Howard achieved.
Primary support for the L-NP if Peter Costello were leader is a low 31.5% (down 3.5% from the Howard result), while ALP support rose 4.5% to 52.5%. The ALP’s two-party preferred lead went from 18% with Howard as leader to 26% with Costello as leader (63% cf. 37%).
Malcolm Turnbull fared better with L-NP primary support remaining at the same level as Howard (35%), while ALP support increased 1.5% to 49.5%. Turnbull achieved the same two-party preferred lead as Howard (ALP 59%, L-NP 41%).
posted on 01 December 2007 by skirchner in Politics
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Peter Coleman’s Martyrdom Operation
Peter Coleman commences martyrdom operations against John Howard on behalf of son-in-law, Peter Costello:
“What was once seen as his gritty determination started to look like an almost animal egomania and he seemed to be blocking progress and regeneration, rather than advancing the cause,” [Coleman] said.
Mr Coleman also says Mr Howard destroyed Mr Costello’s chance to be prime minister.
“There is no doubt that this man of great promise and great ability was blocked by [Mr] Howard’s egomania,” he said.
“I don’t think that can be doubted, in fact his colleagues wanted him to go and extraordinarily he refused to go and more than once.
“And that put an end to a lifelong ambition that this very able fellow Costello had.”
Coleman’s loyalty to family is admirable enough, but there is no reason to believe that Peter Costello could have changed the Coalition’s fortunes. Costello’s ambition was frustrated because there was never a compelling case for leadership change and never any evidence to suggest that Costello could improve the Coalition’s prospects. That is Costello’s failing, not John Howard’s. Whatever political success Peter Costello did enjoy was largely parasitic on John Howard’s.
posted on 28 November 2007 by skirchner in Politics
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Microeconomic Reform Under Rudd
I think the last time I heard an Australian politician mention microeconomic reform was circa 1993. Now this from our new social-democratic overlord:
KERRY O’BRIEN: You’ve talked about a central role for Treasury, what do you mean by that?
KEVIN RUDD: … I think Treasury by instinct, this goes back to the earlier Labor period, is a reforming department. It actually has a whole bunch of people within it who want to advance the cause of micro-economic reform. I think that reform agenda has not had any political impetus for a long, long time during the latter period of the Howard government and I think there is a lot of enthusiasm there for us embracing a reform agenda because if you cease reforming this economy, you start to strangle long-term productivity growth. We don’t intend to do that.
Who knew?
posted on 28 November 2007 by skirchner in Economics, Politics
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Operation Sunlight
More reasons to welcome our new social-democratic overlords:
INCOMING finance minister Lindsay Tanner is planning far-reaching reform of the budget to improve transparency. He will overhaul the Charter of Budget Honesty, introduced by Peter Costello in 1996 to govern budget disclosure and Opposition rights to financial information during elections.
Mr Tanner, who held meetings with Finance Department officials yesterday, is expected to take time to implement all of Labor’s proposed budget reforms, but there are likely to be some changes before its first budget in May.
Under the proposals, new government programs that could be influenced by demographic shifts will have to be accompanied by five-year forecasts of their costs.
The International Monetary Fund was critical of the Howard government’s failure to include any long-term assessment of the cost of its decision to make superannuation benefits tax-free for people aged over 60.
Labor intends to include in the budget a statement explaining how welfare, health and education benefits are distributed among different income groups, and the taxes paid by those groups. The idea is to help in the assessment of the merits of government spending and tax levels.
Labor wants the budget papers to contain more information about what individual government departments are spending.
At present, the main budget papers list spending by broad function, so spending on housing might include programs run by the transport and regional services department, defence and family and community services. Although each department publishes its own portfolio budget, these do not include more than one year’s forecasts and do not match the main budget papers.
Labor’s reforms follow an extensive consultation that resulted in the publication of a policy paper, called Operation Sunlight, last year…
The Labor government will expect the Treasury and finance departments to provide continuous disclosure, posting major changes in the budget position on their websites and providing quarterly updates on the size of the surplus. There will be fixed dates for mid-year budget updates and monthly financial reports.
The finance department has not posted a monthly budget report since June.
It may sound like a trivial matter, but the fixed dates for the budget updates will be a great improvement. Outgoing Treasurer Peter Costello would fling these documents out at his own convenience, often with as little as a few hours notice. I still shudder at the amount of my time that was wasted trying to find out when these things would be released and obtaining copies of the documentation in a timely manner.
posted on 27 November 2007 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Politics
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‘I for one welcome our new social-democratic overlords…’
Australia’s federal election has seen a change of government, with the Labor Party set to win 86 seats in the House of Representatives against the incumbent conservative Coalition’s 62 seats. The Labor Party secured a two-party preferred swing of around 6%, to win its largest two-party preferred vote share in the post-war period of around 54%. It is likely that incumbent Prime Minister John Howard will lose his seat in parliament. The Coalition will also lose its majority in the Senate. The decisive nature of the Labor win should minimise any negative implications for financial markets that might have arisen from the possibility of a hung parliament or minority government.
The change in government opens up a number of possibilities for positive change. There is a good chance the Labor Party will finally address the Coalition’s legacy of failure in relation to statutory reform of central bank governance, which has left the Reserve Bank of Australia as one of the developed world’s least accountable and transparent central banks. Outgoing Treasurer Peter Costello cites central bank reform as one of his greatest achievements when it is in fact one of his many failures as Treasurer.
Costello’s other great failing as Treasurer was to withhold the benefits of national prosperity from the Australian people, by hoarding Commonwealth revenue on an unprecedented scale. Rather than continuing to nationalise private equity capital and other assets via the Future Fund, it is to be hoped that the ALP will lower the record federal tax burden Peter Costello inflicted on the Australian people.
Malcolm Turnbull has held on to the seat of Wentworth against the odds, almost securing a majority in his own right on the primary vote. The anti-pulp mill left were repudiated, despite a massive campaign against Turnbull. The Labor Party’s George Newhouse was literally bitch-slapped. The result gives Turnbull ample authority to contest the leadership of the federal parliamentary Liberal Party. Turnbull is the Liberal Party’s best chance for renewal.
Perhaps the worst aspect of the federal election is that the balance of power in the Senate will be held either by anti-gaming wowser Nick Xenophon in combination with Family First’s Steve Fielding or the Greens. It is hard to know which of these two possibilities is least friendly to our liberties.
UPDATE: As we predicted back in June, Costello does not have the stomach to lead.
UPDATE II: Turnbull declares!
posted on 25 November 2007 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Politics
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Election Eve Round-Up
David Uren blames Paul Romer for Ruddonomics:
Rudd is influenced by the new growth theory of Californian economist Paul Romer. Where traditional economics says economic growth results from the forces of labour and capital coming together, assisted by the fortuitous development of new technology, Romer argues that investment in knowledge is a measurable input and part of the growth process. New technology doesn’t appear like manna from heaven but requires investment in education.
Labor’s take on Romer’s work is that investment in education will produce long-term dividends in economic growth. Its election promises such as the tax rebate for education equipment and funds for school computers are tokens of its new approach and could be expected to be followed, if elected, by a more substantial shift of budget priorities towards education.
Econtalk has a superb interview with Paul Romer, in which Romer is very careful to disassociate himself from some of the many abuses of endogenous growth theory.
Sinclair Davidson and Alex Robson calculate the tax cuts that could have been financed out of the election spending promises of Labor and the Coalition:
According to the Coalition’s own calculations of the size of its and Labor’s tax cut and spending commitments, the average taxpayer earning approximately $60,000 per annum would receive a benefit after four years of $65 per week under the Coalition’s plans and $52 per week under the ALP’s plans—if each party’s tax policy was implemented and if the amount each party promised in new spending was instead devoted to tax cuts. If the Sunday Telegraph’s calculations were used these figures would be $58 per week under the Coalition’s plans and $47 per week under the ALP’s plan. Using the estimates of The Age/SMH and The Australian after four years the average taxpayer would be $94 per week better off under the Coalition, and $66 per week better off under Labor.
It can be said therefore, that regardless of who’s figures are believed the average taxpayer would be better off after four years by at least $58 per week under the Coalition and $47 per week under Labor, Labor, if tax cuts were delivered instead of spending increases.
The Intrade federal election contract is giving an 88% chance to a Labor win, although there is actually more market depth on the short-side of the Labor contract, suggesting that at least some people are looking to take advantage of Labor being over-priced.
posted on 23 November 2007 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Politics
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That 1969 Feeling
Matthew Johnson argues that financial markets should be getting nervous ahead of this weekend’s federal election in Australia:
It’s starting to feel a little bit like Florida 2000 to me. It’s perfectly possible for the Coalition to win in court (Newhouse’s invalid nomination) and to do so with a minority of the vote. Given this risk, I’d sooner not go home long AUD or Aussie equities on Friday – no decision creates complications in all sorts of places (FIRB for example), and it’d be a clear ‘sell Australia’ signal.
Instead, I would suggest it is starting to feel like 1969, when the Labor Party secured its largest post-war two-party preferred swing of 7.1% and a majority of the national two-party preferred vote, yet failed to secure a majority in the House of Representatives. Indeed, 21% of post-war elections have been won on a minority of the two-party preferred vote (1954, 1961, 1969, 1990 and 1998).
Amid broad-based USD weakness, the Australian dollar has been a notable underperformer in the run-up to the election. Recent AUD weakness reflects flight from currencies with negative net international investment positions in favour of the Japanese yen. But the AUD has also underperformed those currencies with which it is traditionally highly correlated. AUD-EUR has broken below multi-year trendline support from the October 1998 monthly lows. AUD is also underperforming its commodity bloc peers NZD and CAD, with AUD-NZD slipping to lows of 1.1529, levels not seen since late August, while AUD-CAD fell to a low of 0.8540, below the highs for the year at 0.9512. Weakness in base metals prices is the most likely explanation for the underperformance of AUD. But this weekend’s federal election and the risk of a hung parliament may also be playing a role.
posted on 22 November 2007 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Politics
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The Dynamic Benefits of Tax Cuts
Alan Wood, on why fiscal policy should not be used for demand management:
fiscal policy has a higher purpose than keeping interest rates at politically comfortable levels. Would we really be better off, as the Government’s critics suggest, with budget surpluses of 3 per cent, 4 per cent, or 5 per cent of gross domestic product and lower interest rates?
The answer is no. The appropriate role of fiscal policy is to redistribute the revenue windfall from the China boom in economically productive ways, and tax cuts meet this criterion admirably. If this leads to higher interest rates than otherwise, so what?
At worst the contribution is marginal compared with the other forces at work on the economic cycle, and the dynamic economic benefits exceed the costs. For most of the past five years, according to the RBA, fiscal policy has had no impact on monetary policy.
And according to analysis by IPAC’s Johnson, even under the extreme assumption that the tax cuts were entirely responsible for the interest rate rises that did take place, the economy-wide benefits exceeded the cost by several billion dollars.
Howard and Costello’s mistake has not been their tax cuts, but the fact they didn’t deliver more vigorous tax reform earlier in the economic cycle, before the economy ran up against capacity constraints.
As we noted at the beginning of the election campaign, Federal government revenue hoarding has also been bad political strategy. The government’s campaign promises in relation to further tax cuts would have been much more credible had they been announced in the May Budget and legislated ahead of the election campaign. As things stand, the tax cuts were a one day wonder, long since forgotten amid all the election campaign trivia.
posted on 21 November 2007 by skirchner in Economics, Financial Markets, Politics
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Australian Expat Voting
Australian expats intending to vote in this weekend’s federal election are being reminded that voting closes at the same time as the polling booths in Western Australia:
VOTING queues have begun to build at Australian diplomatic missions around the world as party campaigners worry that thousands of people will miss out on the chance to vote because of a mix-up over time differences.
Voting booths around the world close at the same time as the last booth in Western Australia on election day, with the time difference meaning the last votes need to be cast by Friday evening in places such as London.
Large crowds usually turn up at the Australian High Commission in London on the Saturday of the election only to find that voting has already finished.
posted on 19 November 2007 by skirchner in Politics
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Ron Paul’s Oath
John Fortier calls on US Presidential candidate Ron Paul to uphold his oath of office:
Last week the media found it remarkable that Ron Paul raised $4.3 million in one day. But even more remarkable was the way that it was raised. Groups of Paul supporters scheduled a mass Internet fundraiser on Guy Fawkes Day.
Guy Fawkes was the chief plotter in an effort to blow up the British Houses of Parliament and kill the king on Nov. 5, 1606. Nov. 5 also figures prominently in last year’s movie “V for Vendetta,” about a modern Guy Fawkes-inspired rebel who fights against a fascist British government. The fundraising website was ThisNovember5th.com, which includes clips of Paul warning of a descent into military government. The not-so-subtle message is that America is close to a dictatorship and that extreme and violent measures are needed to combat the government.
A Paul spokesman backed off the most egregious rhetoric by noting that he did not favor blowing up government buildings. Instead, Paul “wants to demolish things like the Department of Education, but we can do that very peacefully, in a constructive manner.” These words are a welcome corrective, but Paul still pocketed the money.
Ron Paul is a fringe presidential candidate, but he is also a sitting member of Congress who has sworn an oath to uphold the Constitution and the institution of Congress. Trafficking with those who hint at the violent overthrow of Congress is no way to honor that oath. Give the money back.
posted on 16 November 2007 by skirchner in Politics
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‘A Society Like Sweden’
As the government and opposition compete to see who can add the most complexity to the federal tax-spending churn, Rupert Murdoch suggests an alternative approach:
Mr Murdoch, the chairman and chief executive of News Corporation, owner of The Australian, said: “We are very lucky in Australia, there are no huge economic challenges. But taking a macro view, all political parties seem to be making an effort to become a society like Sweden, to create a dependency mentality as against an aspirational one.”
Mr Murdoch, in an interview with The Australian in Melbourne ahead of a News shareholder briefing in Adelaide today, declined to answer any questions on the election campaign.
He said he was not close enough to it. “I don’t want to say anything remotely close to Australian politics,” Mr Murdoch said.
However, he noted that “all governments are raking in indecent amounts of tax, which they should do something with, either by investing in infrastructure or handing it all back to the people”.
“Australia should certainly slash the capital gains tax,” he said. “There are people who hold shares for 20 years and won’t sell because they will lose it in tax. When the US cut its tax to 15 per cent, revenue doubled and people did something with it.”
He praised the more aspirational nature of American society, “where people want to change and do something about it, accelerating change with innovation”.
posted on 14 November 2007 by skirchner in Economics, Politics
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The Liberty & Democracy Party
They may have a name that sounds like a Latin American populist front, but the Liberty and Democracy Party is the first organised libertarian political party in Australia since John Singleton and Bob Howard’s ironically named Workers’ Party in the 1970s. John Humphreys laid out on the rationale for the LDP in the Autumn 2007 issue of Policy.
It would seem unlikely that a libertarian political party could ever enjoy much success in Australia. US political culture is much more friendly to libertarian ideas, yet it has not been able to sustain an electorally-successful libertarian political movement. The only identifiably libertarian candidate for the presidency in 2008 is Republican Ron Paul, an Old Right isolationist crank.
Still, small parties can have an influence on political debate that is unrelated to electoral success. Milton Friedman once pointed to the official platform of the Socialist Party in the United States, which never enjoyed much electoral success, and yet managed to see many elements of its political platform adopted.
I particularly liked the LDP’s response to the candidate questionnaire from the Australian Christian Lobby. Needless to say, the answers ACL got are probably not the ones they wanted to hear. The ACL opportunistically seize upon a junk report from the Australia Institute to argue for increased censorship of advertising ‘to protect childhood.’ The LDP’s response:
• The Australia Institute is a socialist organisation.
• Raising a child is the job of parents, not the government.
The LDP is preferencing against sitting members, with the exception of Wentworth, where it is preferencing Malcolm Turnbull as a reward for his support (sincere or otherwise) for the Tasmanian pulp mill. In the absence of foot soldiers to hand-out how-to-vote cards, the LDP’s Reps preferences probably won’t matter much. In the Senate, they are alternating their preferences between the Coalition and Labor and putting the Greens last.
posted on 09 November 2007 by skirchner in Politics
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