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The Canadian-Australian Productivity Gap: Comparative Institutions and Policy Settings, Fraser Institute, 29 September 2022.

I have a new report out with the Fraser Institute, co-authored with Milagros Palacios, The Canadian-Australian Business Sector Productivity Gap: A Sectoral Analysis.

Today is my last day at the United States Studies Centre. A big thank you to former CEO Simon Jackman for inviting me to work on the economic dimensions of the Aust-US relationship at such an extraordinary time. To find out what I am doing next, you will have to…

I have an op-ed in the AFR on the effectiveness of sanctions, noting that they are often the least bad option when the alternative is escalating conflict.

I have a new report out with USSC, From “China Shock” to deglobalisation shock: China’s WTO accession and US economic engagement 20 years on. Main points are as follows: • China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 was an important element of its growing integration into the…

I have an op-ed in the AFR explaining why Chinese President Xi Jinping will be eyeing a prospective Fed tightening warily and why the RBA will lag the Fed. Full text below the fold.

The latest issue of Agenda includes a symposium on Economic Policy during Covid. Includes a contribution from me on ‘The Reserve Bank of Australia’s pandemic response and the New Keynesian trap.’ Note text was finalised mid-year. A lot of water under the bridge since then.

I have an op-ed in the AFR noting that logistics are the least of the problems facing the WTO’s MC12 when the world’s two largest economies no longer seek greater integration.

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre, A Geoeconomic Alliance: The Potential and Limits of Economic Statecraft. The report examines the history and application of economic statecraft and its relevance to the Australia-US alliance and US-China strategic competition. An important theme that emerges from the…

I have an op-ed in The Mandarin summarising my latest report on the Australia-US bilateral investment relationship. Text below the fold. There is an even longer version in Australian Outlook.

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre, Australia-US bilateral investment in 2020: Taxing times. The report highlight Australia’s underperformance in attracting US investment since the passage of President Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017. While President Biden’s proposed corporate tax changes will improve…

I have an op-ed in the AFR noting that the Biden Administration’s proposed higher corporate tax rate will penalise US companies relative to foreign competitors and reduce investment and incentives to produce in the US relative to the rest of the world.

I have an op-ed in The Mandarin arguing that the government needs to articulate clearly and transparently the reasons for rejecting foreign acquisitions to minimise foreign investment uncertainty and its economic effects.

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre, A Foreign Investment Uncertainty Index for Australia and the United States. The index helps quantify the uncertainty generated by our regulation of FDI at the border and its economic implications. John Kehoe writes up the story in today’s…

Last year, Scott Sumner invited me to contribute to the Mercatus Center Working Paper series on the topic of Australian monetary policy and how a nominal income targeting regime might be implemented in a small open economy. You can read the research summary here and the full paper here.

Avoiding US-style demographic stagnation: The role of immigration and population growth in Australia’s post-pandemic recovery, United States Studes Centre, University of Sydney, November 2020.

I have an op-ed in the AFR explaining how the Fed’s new inflation targeting strategy differs from the RBA and how it will put pressure on the RBA to lift its game.

The United States Studies Centre has released a new report, Enduring partners: The US-Australia investment relationship, by David Uren. The report is a follow-up and update to our landmark 2017 report, Indispensable Economic Partners on the bilateral investment relationship. In the latest report, I take the opportunity to update my…

My interview with David Beckworth’s Macro Musings podcast is now available. We talk inflation vs NGDP targeting, Australia’s recent macroeconomic history and what they put in the water at the BIS.

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre on ‘Globalisation and labour productivity in the OECD: What are the implications for post-pandemic recovery and resilience?’ Globalisation is measured on the basis of both the depth and breadth of international connections and so is consistent with seeking…

I have an op-ed in the AFR arguing our barley producers are just as much casualties of Australian industry and trade policy as they are of Chinese foreign policy. As one trade lawyer put it to me, China will wait for Australia to launch a WTO case, then retaliate with…

I have a piece at the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia blog on the implications of the current pandemic for Australian labour productivity based on my recent report for USSC. David Uren also writes up my report for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute blog, The Strategist.

Failure to converge? The Australia-US productivity gap in long-run perspective, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney, 16 April 2020.

My interview with Scott Sumner from the Mercatus Center at George Mason University on monetary and fiscal policy responses to the pandemic, the future of globalisation and his forthcoming book on market monetarism.

The March 2020 issue of the Australian Economic Review is out, with a Policy Forum including my article on The Effect of Changes in Monetary Policy on Consumer and Business Confidence. Be sure to also read Bruce Preston’s article in the same issue on The Case for Reform of the…

In The Conversation, I round-up the US and Australian evidence on the effect of monetary policy on consumer confidence. There is little evidence for a perverse signalling effect from rate cuts on confidence, contrary to suggestions by the RBA Board.

I have an op-ed in the AFR on the US-China ‘phase one’ trade deal noting its lack of substance in law and economics. To the extent that third parties like Australia are adversely affected by trade diversion, they could mount a case against China at the WTO.

I have an op-ed in the AFR arguing that the perennial predictions of the US dollar’s demise reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of the sources of its dominant role in the world economy. The US dollar’s advantages are not easily replicated by putative rivals (text below the fold).

I have a piece in The Conversation on what we learned from Governor Lowe’s speech last night about its prospective approach to QE. As I note in the article, the risk now is that the RBA repeats the US Fed’s mistakes by moving too slowly.

Very long time readers of this blog will know that the future of the US dollar was much debated in these pages in the mid-2000s. I have given these ideas a systematic treatment in a new report for the United States Studies Centre, The ‘reserve currency’ myth: The US dollar’s…

I talk to the United States Studies Center’s @2020VisionCast podcast about last week’s tentative trade deal between the US and China, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’s visit to Australia and other topics.

I have an op-ed in the AFR on the tentative trade deal the Trump Administration has negotiated with China. While partially forestalling further tariff increases, enormous economic damage has already been done and will get worse in 2020.

My explainer for the ABC Online on the RBA’s policy options as interest rates approach zero.

Australian Business Economists hosted a Lunchtime Briefing on QE in Australia? What would it look like? with Ms Lyn Cobley, Chief Executive, Westpac Insitutional Bank, Dr Stephen Grenville AO, Non-resident Fellow, Lowy Institute, and myself. Ross Gittins summarises the event in his write-up for the SMH. The text of my…

I have a piece in the USSC’s 45th on why so-called ‘currency wars’ are lacking in effective weapons. Full text below the fold.

Lessons from quantitative easing in the United States: A guide for Australian policymakers, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney, 18 June 2019.

I have a piece in the USSC’s 45th on how the Federal Reserve shows that the RBA cannot ‘run out of ammunition’ and why the RBA is singularly responsible for managing aggregate demand.

With the US-China trade talks on the brink of collapse, I have an op-ed in the AFR on why a trade deal won’t resolve uncertainty over tariffs

Unbroken: Productivity and Worker Compensation in Australia and the United States, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney, 20 March 2019.

‘US protectionism a costly failure’, The Australian Financial Review, 16 December 2019. ‘Now we know. The Reserve Bank has spelled out what it will do when rates approach zero’, The Conversation, 27 November 2019. ‘The Treasurer should not let the RBA off the hook so easily’, Australian Financial Review, 6…

I have an article in Medium on the demise of Australia’s Brisbane Action Plan at the G20 leaders’ meeting in Buenos Aires.

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre, An open door: How globalised are the Australian and US economies? There is an essay length version in The Australian Financial Review. There is also a write-up of the report by David Uren in The Australian.

My piece for Business Insider on why rising US real interest rates are a good news story, have little to do with the Fed, and help explain the Australian yield curve’s record inversion to the US.

I have an op-ed in the AFR on how a 40% decline in FDI in the US undermines one of the motivations for Donald Trump’s rising tariff wall

In the latest installment of the United States Studies Centre’s Debate Papers series, Alan Oxley takes the affirmative and I take the negative on whether the global trading system will survive President Trump’s tariffs.

I have a new report out with the United State Studies Centre, State of confusion: How policy uncertainty harms international trade and investment.

I have a new report out with the United States Studies Centre, Deal-breakers? Regulating foreign direct investment for national security in Australia and the United States. David Uren’s write-up in The Australian here. There is an op-ed version in the Sydney Morning Herald.

I have a piece at ABC News Online arguing we should not underestimate the seriousness of the trade war unfolding between the US and the rest of the world.

I have an op-ed in the AFR noting the contradictions in US international economic policy. Full text below the fold (may differ slightly from edited AFR version).

I have an op-ed in the AFR arguing President Trump is pursuing the wrong trade policy strategy against China. Full text below the fold.